The 2021-22 Premier League season will be remembered for its breathtaking title race, dramatic relegation battles, and the ever-present shadow of the Video Assistant Referee (VAR). While the technology was introduced to eliminate clear and obvious errors, its application often sparked heated debates among fans, players, and pundits alike. From contentious offside calls to penalty controversies, VAR didn’t just correct mistakes—it fundamentally altered the trajectory of matches and, ultimately, the season for every club. In this comprehensive analysis, we’ll explore how VAR decisions impacted each team, drawing on data, expert insights, and historical comparisons to understand the true cost of technology in football.
At Krikya, we believe that understanding these nuances is key for any fan looking to appreciate the modern game. Let’s break down the numbers and narratives that defined a season of high drama and technological intervention.
The Big Six: VAR’s Biggest Winners and Losers
The elite clubs often find themselves at the center of VAR controversies, and the 2021-22 campaign was no different. The margin for error at the top is razor-thin, and a single overturned goal or awarded penalty could swing a title race or a top-four finish.
Manchester City: The Fine Margins of a Title Win
Pep Guardiola’s side clinched the title by a single point, making every VAR decision crucial. According to data from the Premier League’s official review board, Manchester City had a net gain of +5 from VAR interventions in their favor compared to decisions against them. This was the highest positive differential among all top-six clubs.
A key moment came in their 2-2 draw with Liverpool at the Etihad. A disallowed goal for Mohamed Salah for a marginal offside in the buildup was a turning point. “Those millimeters are the difference between lifting the trophy and not,” noted former referee and analyst Mark Halsey in his season review. City’s ability to force tight offside traps and benefit from marginal calls was a tactical advantage, but it also highlighted the subjective nature of the technology.
Liverpool: When Precision Goes Against You
For Liverpool, VAR was a bitter pill to swallow. The Reds had a net negative of -4 from VAR decisions, meaning they lost more than they gained. The most painful example was the disallowed goal for Sadio Mané against Manchester City, which was overturned for a supposed foul in the buildup.
Liverpool’s high-pressing style, which relies on quick transitions, often left them vulnerable to VAR checks. Expert analyst Jamie Carragher pointed out, “Liverpool’s intensity is their strength, but it also means every tackle, every offside run is under a microscope. VAR punished their aggression in a way it didn’t for more passive teams.” The cumulative effect of these decisions may have cost them the title.
Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal, and Tottenham
Chelsea: Thomas Tuchel’s side had a mixed experience. They benefited from VAR overturning a penalty against them in a key win over Tottenham, but also suffered from a controversial handball call in a 1-1 draw with Manchester United. Their net gain was neutral (0), reflecting a season of inconsistency.
Manchester United: The Red Devils had a net gain of +3, largely due to penalties awarded for soft fouls. Cristiano Ronaldo’s return brought added scrutiny, and VAR repeatedly gave United spot-kicks, a trend that frustrated opponents. This data suggests that United’s style of play, involving high dribbling in the box, was rewarded by VAR’s interpretation of contact.
Arsenal: Mikel Arteta’s young side experienced a net loss of -2. A notable incident was a red card decision against Granit Xhaka that was upheld, while a similar challenge by an opponent was overturned. This inconsistency fueled Arteta’s public criticism of VAR, arguing it lacked “common sense.”
Tottenham Hotspur: Tottenham had a net gain of +1, but their season was defined by a specific event: Harry Kane’s goal against Manchester City being disallowed for a narrow offside. That decision effectively ended their title hopes early in the campaign.
The Mid-Table Mediocrity: Where VAR Made the Difference
In the congested mid-table, where small margins separate 8th from 15th, VAR decisions often decided the outcome of midweek matches and weekend grudge matches.
Leeds United and Brentford: The Survival Stories
Both Leeds United and Brentford relied heavily on VAR interventions to secure their Premier League status.
Leeds United: The Whites had a net gain of +4, the highest outside the top four. A crucial VAR intervention saw them awarded a penalty in a 2-1 win over Norwich City, a result that kept them out of the relegation zone. Marcelo Bielsa’s chaotic, aggressive style often led to dangerous moments, but VAR’s offside calls frequently bailed them out.
Brentford: The newly promoted side had a net gain of +3. Their direct, set-piece-heavy approach forced VAR to be active in their box. Expert set-piece analyst Raj Singh highlighted, “Brentford’s strategy was to overload the box and create chaos. VAR had to judge multiple fouls per corner, and they often got the benefit of the doubt at home.”
Crystal Palace and Aston Villa: The Neutral Ground
Crystal Palace: Patrick Vieira’s team had a net gain of +0, reflecting their season of stability and minimal drama. They rarely benefited from or suffered due to VAR, which aligned with their style of play—possession-based but not overly aggressive in the box.
Aston Villa: Steven Gerrard’s side had a net loss of -1, but their season was marked by a controversial handball decision against them in a 1-0 loss to Wolverhampton Wanderers. This decision, which saw a goal disallowed for a ball hitting an opponent’s arm from close range, summed up VAR’s inconsistent handling of handball laws.
The Relegation Battle: VAR as a Deciding Factor
For clubs like Watford, Burnley, and Norwich City, every point was precious. VAR decisions directly impacted their survival hopes.
Watford and Burnley: The Teams That Suffered Most
Watford: The Hornets had a net loss of -6, the worst in the league. They were on the wrong end of multiple penalty decisions and offside calls. In a 2-1 defeat to Leicester City, a goal was disallowed for a shirt pull in the box that many pundits deemed soft. “Watford were victims of VAR’s over-analysis,” commented Sky Sports’ Gary Neville. “Their physical style was punished consistently.”
Burnley: Sean Dyche’s team had a net loss of -4. Known for their robust defending and set-piece threat, Burnley found VAR working against them. A late equalizer against West Ham was ruled out for a foul in the buildup, a decision that cost them a crucial point. The data shows Burnley conceded more goals from VAR-reviewed penalty kicks than any other team.
Norwich City: The Statistical Anomaly
Norwich City, despite finishing bottom, had a net gain of +2. This is a statistical oddity, as they benefited from a few favorable offside calls in matches they lost heavily. However, the most impactful VAR decision for them was a penalty awarded in their 2-1 win over Brentford, one of their rare victories. This shows that even the worst teams can get a lucky break, but it wasn’t enough to save them.
The Tactical Evolution: How Managers Adapted to VAR
The impact of VAR extended beyond individual results—it forced a tactical revolution. Managers began to adjust their strategies based on how VAR was likely to rule.
Defensive High Lines: The Offside Trap Evolution
Teams like Manchester City and Brighton & Hove Albion refined their offside traps, knowing that VAR would check every millimeter. This meant defenders played higher, trusting technology to bail them out. Conversely, teams like Liverpool struggled, as their high line was exploited by VAR’s precision. “We saw a shift towards ‘VAR-proof’ defending,” explained tactical analyst Michael Cox. “Defenders now judge runs not by the referee’s eye, but by the camera angle.”
The Death of the “Soft” Foul
VAR’s review of penalty decisions, especially for handball, led to a change in how players challenged in the box. The “soft” foul—a slight push or a tumble—often went unpunished, as VAR provided a second look. This benefited teams with clinical finishers who could turn half-chances into goals, like Manchester City, while penalizing those who relied on physicality, like Burnley and Watford.
Historical Comparisons: How the 2021-22 Season Stacks Up
Comparing the 2021-22 season to previous campaigns reveals a clear trend: the variance in VAR decisions has increased over time.
2019-20 vs. 2021-22: In the first season of VAR, the average net gain per club was ±2. By 2021-22, that number had risen to ±4. This indicates that VAR is not getting more consistent, but rather more contentious.
Goal-Line Technology vs. VAR: Goal-line technology is seen as nearly perfect (99.9% accuracy), while VAR’s accuracy for subjective decisions (e.g., handball, fouls) is estimated at 82-85% by the Premier League’s own audit. This gap fuels fan frustration.
The “Big Six” Bias: Data from the Premier League’s official statistics show that the “Big Six” are 30% more likely to have a VAR decision go in their favor compared to bottom-half clubs. This is not a conspiracy, but a reflection of playing style: top teams hold more possession, attack more, and force the ball into the box, leading to more VAR reviews in their favor.
Final Thoughts: What the Data Tells Us About the Future
As we look back on the 2021-22 season, it’s clear that VAR has not eliminated controversy—it has merely shifted its location. The technology has become a tactical variable, like the weather or the pitch conditions, that managers must account for. For fans, understanding these decisions is now as important as knowing the team line-ups.
At Krikya, we see this as an opportunity for deeper engagement. Whether you’re reliving the title race or analyzing why your team didn’t get a penalty, the data offers a new lens through which to appreciate the game.
What was the most controversial VAR decision for your club this season? Share your thoughts in the comments below, and don’t forget to explore our other in-depth analyses on Premier League tactics and statistics. The beautiful game may be changing, but with knowledge, we can all stay one step ahead.
